This week the ECB will hold the meeting regarding its monetary policy which may become a driver for the single currency if Draghi makes unexpected statements.
The EUR/USD unexpectedly dropped and lost about 0.74% on Friday. The overall picture is bearish now. The resistance is seen at 1.1050, the support lies at 1.1000.
MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI approached the oversold area.
The 4 hours chart shows that the price bounced off the 200-EMA. The pair left behind the 100-EMA and the 50-EMA which is a sell signal.
The pair may recover to 1.1080 to resume its downward trajectory towards 1.0900.
The BoJ left its rates unchanged, however, the regulator left the door open for changes for August. This news preserved some risk appetite in the markets.
The tone is still negative in the market. The pound fell from a two-week high on Friday when the U.S. data boosted the dollar across the market. The pound lost about 1.20% during the course of the day. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.
MACD indicator declined. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. Indicator RSI rebounded from the overbought area that supports sellers.
The instrument is locked in-between the bearish 100-EMA and the 50-EMA. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards.
We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. A move below the current support 1.3100 would suggest a resumption of the bearish trend.
The yen kept falling and reached the three-week highs during Friday. The Japanese currency is under pressure after the Bonds market growth. If the situation does not change the Japanese regulator may implement new softening measures.
We see no change in USD/JPY outlook. The growth from 98.97 is still seen as a correction and it seems to be over. The pair sharply decreased on Friday and lost about 0.47%. Sellers seem to have returned to the market. The resistance is at 105.30, the support comes in at 104.50.
MACD remained in the positive territory, however, its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area which is another sell signal.
The pair is coming back to the 200-EMA which acts as a support in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are still moving upwards which is a buy signal.
The price is expected to fall towards 103.50. Alternatively, the pair will resume its growth.
The NZD decreased when RBNZ decided to provide an update on the economy on July 21. The kiwi is too strong and the regulator might cut the rate to hold its growth.
Technically, the instrument left the upward channel. The NZD decreased and left the level 0.7150 behind. The resistance is at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050.
MACD is in the negative area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strength. RSI is close to the oversold territory which is a sell signal.
The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and approached the 200-EMA which is its last hope to resume a growth.
We expect markets to stay bearish. In the scenario where the sellers still have a ball the pair will decrease to 0.7050 - 0.7000.
The gold resumed its decrease. The political uncertainty, the bank crisis in Italy and the low rates in the leading economies are the main drivers for this decrease.
The pair remained close to the ascending channel lower limit. The gold futures spent the day at the level 1330. The resistance is seen at 1360, the support stands at 1330.
MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ weakness. Indicator RSI rebounded from the oversold area. Its signal line moved upwards which confirms the growing strength of buyers.
The price broke the 50-EMA, but was stopped at the 100-EMA which rejected it upwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards.
We are looking for the support 1316 break and then continuation of a fall with a further stop at 1300.
The Brent is getting cheaper due to supply and demand aspects. At the same time economical uncertainty after the Brexit still supports a demand for the safe assets.
The Brent was active on Friday, the oil futures gained about 1.30%. The price recovered and was able to return some of its early losses. However, the market still bearish and we do not believe in a strong growth in the near term. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50.
MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is close to the overbought area.
The price broke the 50-EMA, but was not able to move higher the 100-EMA. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in 4 the hours chart.
The resistance level of 48.50 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 46.50 return.
The Bonds Market in the US remained optimistic due to the positive macroeconomic data in the US.
The index was neutral on Friday. The Nasdaq remained in a narrow side channel. The resistance is at 4600, the support is seen at 4550.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI left the overbought area and moved downwards that also supports sellers.
The price broke the 50-EMA and touched the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs direction is upwards which is a buy signal.
We expect the price to remain at the current levels and will fluctuate between 4600 and 4550.
The index left all-time high and moved below 2150. As we expected the market pulled back a little. The index lost about 0.53% on Friday. The resistance comes in at 2150, the support lies at 2140.
MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI left the overbought territory.
The 50-EMA touched the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages direction is upwards.
Technically, the main trend is upwards, however, sellers managed to lead the price from 2160 to 2140. We believe that is a correctional decrease which happened due to the profit-taking. The price may decrease to 2120 (where the 50-EMA lies) to bounce from it upwards.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman