18.09.2015
Fundamental analysis
The US dollar has fallen to the three weeks minimum against the most major currencies. The US economic data turned out to be weaker than expected. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at the September meeting.
According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 11 thousand having fallen to 264 thousand.
The EUR/USD has increased amid the oil quotations growth after the US crude oil stockpiles positive publication. Last week stocks fell slightly by more than 2 million barrels which supported the demand for the “black gold".
The pair GBP/USD had increased by the end of the day. The pound has significantly strengthened against the US dollar, having offset all positions that had been lost the other day. The currency was supported by the UK labor market strong data. As it became known, the UK workers’ average earnings (excluding bonuses) have significantly increased for three months (to July), having registered the highest rates for more than six years.
The pair USD/JPY had grown. The yen has significantly decreased against the US dollar, having reached the minimum at the same time. The news that the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization has revised the world economic growth forecast over the next 2 years put pressure on the yen. However the pair decreased after the Fed’s meeting results publication.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The US Federal Reserve monetary policy two-day meeting results was the main event of the day. The August Eurozone revised inflation data were published yesterday. The report recorded the index output into the negative territory. This factor is negative for the euro as the deflation threat may again rise rumors about the ECB possible program expansion.
After a short-term consolidation the pair euro/dollar sharply grew and tested the resistance level of 1.1410.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.
Trading recommendations
The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1530, 1.1590.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The FOMC announced the monetary policy two-day meeting results. The FOMC did not change the rate. Traders expected the retail sales positive data. The forecasts proved to be true in month terms: in fact 0.2% vs. 0.2%. In annual terms the data were in the red zone: 3.7% against the expected 3.8% whereas previously there was 4.1%.
The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend. The pair grew above the resistance level of 1.5550.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.
Trading recommendations
The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
Traders expected the US Federal Reserve to tighten the monetary policy. The Fed published its decision to keep the rate at the level of 0,25%.The US government bond yields have been greatly increasing for the last two trading days which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Yesterday the Nasdaq index demonstrated the weakest growth from the major stock indices which signals about the investors’ exit from the risky assets.
The price resumed its upward movement. However, the dollar sharply fell by the end of the trades. The pair tested the support level of 120.40.
The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.
The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 121.60 the buyers may go to 122.40.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
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