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    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

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    ValdisFFS

    Posts : 551
    Join date : 2014-07-02

    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Sun Aug 09, 2015 6:42 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    10.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    At the end of the last week the markets tended to consolidate ahead of the Friday’s US key data output, including the labor market report. As a result, the dollar fell slightly against the EUR and JPY and in dispute with the British pound it recorded a certain "profit".

    The US Labor Department reported that the US economy added 215,000 jobs last month, instead of the expected 223000. There was created 231,000 jobs in June and the figures were revised from 223,000.

    Among the pairs that demonstrated the maximum volatility we should identify only the pair GBP/USD where the US dollar was supported by the information indicating a certain extent of the British regulator monetary policy prospects. Last week the Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5%, the fund bond purchases volume also was not changed, leaving it in the amount of 375 billion pounds and has signaled that it is still preparing to start raising interest rates, but only at the beginning of next year. As a result, the pair GBP/USD has declined more than 100 points downwards.

    There were published the BoJ meeting results- the Japanese regulator has not changed its monetary policy parameters. The market reacted to this information rather quiet and the pair USD/JPY continued to form the side trend. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with a decrease.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The euro remained within the side trend and slightly declined against the US dollar. The main decline was after the weak German industrial production and the trade balance figures publication. The Germany industrial volume fell by 1.4% in June. The market had expected a growth by 0.3%. While the country trade surplus unexpectedly fell against the expected growth.

    Earlier the US dollar was supported by the initial jobless claims data which rose to 270K. The forecast median was 273K.

    The short-term correction within the euro was formed that is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.0925. Then the pair broke this level upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 will be opened.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    Last week the British pound fell sharply against the US dollar after investors learned that the Bank of England was planning to increase its key interest rate only in 2016. The pound has not changed its position after the UK trade deficit publication which increased to 9.18 billion pounds in June from 8.42 billion pounds in May.

    The markets remain cautious ahead of the July US employment official report that suggested an increase by 223,000. The release showed a growth by 215,000.

    Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.5550, the level breakthrough was followed by increased volumes. Then there was a small price correction to the resistance level of 1.5550. Nevertheless, this movement was short-term and the pair tested the support level of 1.5460.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks of 1.5390 and 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The dollar grew against the yen before the US employment report publication. On Friday the Bank of Japan did not change the policy and kept the expensive stimulus program. The market had expected such a result, so its reaction was weak. Meanwhile, analysts suggest that the number of jobs grew by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 %. In fact the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 % and the number of jobs grew by 215,000.

    Having broken through the resistance level of 124.30 upwards, the upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped. Little consolidation below the level led to the downward correction. The pair closed the trades below the level of 124.30.

    The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We expect the 124.30 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 125.50, further then towards 127.00.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    The Swiss franc has fallen against the US dollar. According to the data, the Switzerland unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.1% which coincided with the forecasts. Investors' attention was directed to the last week critical report and to the US labor market data. Analysts suggested that the number of jobs increased by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the minimum level of 5.3% since April 2008. According to the published release the unemployment rate came out at the forecasted median and the number of jobs increased by 223,000.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

    Posts : 551
    Join date : 2014-07-02

    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:09 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    11.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    Last week the foreign exchange market trades were under the wait and see positions’ influence that investors have taken on the eve of the July US employment release, hoping to get fresh guidance concerning the rate increases time.

    The June and May Non-Farms were revised for an increase, in general by 14 thousand and apparently, it strengthened confidence that the Fed short-term interest rates would be raised in September and caused the dollar full-scale purchases explosion. However, the "bulls" triumph was not long, very soon the US dollar came under pressure. At the beginning of the new week it was not able to maintain its achievements against the pound besides earlier the pair pound/dollar fell amid the UK negative data.

    The euro remained on the "float" in the dispute with the US dollar despite the weak statistics that came from the EU leading economies. The euro negative activity amid the US data was short-term and soon the euro returned all its losses, ending the day with a profit.

    After the side consolidation the pair USD/JPY rose on the US reports, but soon it fell down. Obviously, the change of mood within this pair has been provoked by the events in the US debt market where the "treasuries" profitability has fallen sharply after the employment report publication.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    According to the Bank of France forecasts, the country economic growth will increase slightly in the third quarter. According to the Bank of France companies’ activity survey in July, the French 3rd quarter GDP will increase by 0.3% compared to the 2nd quarter. The Bank of France previous survey pointed out that the GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was 0.2%. The Bank of France said that the manufacturing sector and the service sector business sentiment remained unchanged compared to June.

    There was the strong resistance level of 1.0925 breakthrough upwards on the pair EUR/USD. Then the pair increased and the resistance level of 1.1050 was broken through.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1150.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The first day of the week has passed in the absence of any important statistics. The market reacted only on the Federal Open Market Committee members Fisher and Lockhart speeches. Both members support the early rate hike at least twice before the end of the year. So it was expected quite harsh rhetoric. Investors are waiting for the UK labor market indicators which are scheduled for Wednesday.

    The pair GBP/USD is consolidating above the strong support level of 1.5460. then the pair broke through the resistance level of 1.5550.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    When the price consolidates it may go downwards. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5550 and 1.5460.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The yen fell against the dollar after the macroeconomic statistics publication. The foreign economic activity results marked the surplus emergence in the June trade balance - +102.7 billion yen against the earlier 47.3 billion yen, but the current account balances reduction to 588 billion yen after 1880.9 billion yen in May.

    There was the upward trend breakthrough within the pair USD/JPY. There is a short-term correction near the level of 124.50 that is playing the role of a resistance.

    The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 125.50 first after a consolidation. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 127.00.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

    Posts : 551
    Join date : 2014-07-02

    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Mon Aug 17, 2015 10:05 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    18.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    There was a multidirectional movement in the currency market. The chief troublemaker was the China Central Bank, it did not give any reason for the emotions surge and set the daily yuan fixing against the dollar almost without changes compared with the previous day, it has made it clear that the bank keeps to its stabilization promises.

    By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the weak France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP data. The Eurozone and its major countries GDP assessment showed a growth, but it was worse than forecasted. The euro was supported by the Greece policy information plan.

    the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields decline. In addition, the impression was caused by the UK controversial employment report somewhat blunted and the pound rose up against the US dollar in the news absence that can add negativity. However the pair’s growth was short-term and the pair fell by the end of the day.

    By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the investors escape from the carry trade transactions which supported the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The Japan stock market has declined that slightly increased interest to the yen, the US shares increase allowed the dollar only to neutralize some of the losses.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The EU published its June trade balance. The data came out at the level of 26.4B.

    The German 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US, UK and Australian counterparts, making European assets less attractive to investors.

    The resistance level of 1.1150 was tested twice last week. The repeated level of 1.1130 testing was followed by the active prices decline with the following bullish trend reversal. The pair is trading around the support level of 1.1050.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The June UK weak labor market raise doubts on the monetary tightening prospects by the Bank of England in 2016. The UK unemployment rate in the second quarter rose up by 0.1% while the US unemployment rate has decreased by 0.2%.

    The September USA rate hike expectations are intensified amid the positive economic data. In addition, the dollar is supported by the oil prices decline.

    The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the pair rebound downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We may expect the consolidation around the support level of 1.5550 further on we expect a growth to 1.5670, 1.5775.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The second quarter Japan GDP preliminary data showed -0.4% q/q vs. 1.1% q/q in the first quarter and the forecast was -0.5% q/q. These messages did not evoke any emotions in the market.

    On Wednesday the Japan foreign trade assessment will be presented - it is expected the exports increase and the imports reduction which is able to bring the trade balance deficit to the minimum.

    The level of 124.30 breakthrough was followed by the reversal level testing. Now this mark acts as a strong support where the continuous consolidation was formed.

    The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    Currently, the price is trading above the support level of 124.30. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 123.50.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

    Posts : 551
    Join date : 2014-07-02

    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:07 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    19.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US dollar enjoyed a moderate demand - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 96.83. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Brent oil decrease which in its turn reduced the euro area inflation expectations. The pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the UK and the US bond yields increase. The pair USD/JPY has strengthened after the Japan GDP weak data output. The economic growth fell by 0.4% in the second quarter.

    There was important statistics published. The UK consumer price inflation rose up by 0.1% in July compared to 0.0% in June and it was forecasted 0.0%. The United States published the building permits volume report for July at the level of 1.119 M (the previous value was 1.337M; it was forecasted 1.232M).

    Investors should pay attention to the fact that the situation with the US federal budget deficit continues to improve year by year. The United States are fully committed to the budget deficit reduction. By the end of the financial year 2014/2015 is one month and a half. Over the past ten months the US budget deficit (seasonally correcting) has been $428 billion from October to July inclusively against $460 billion in the same period last year (-7% y/y). It is a supporting factor for the US dollar.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The euro fell against the US dollar. Earlier there was the US and Germany 10-year bond yields reduction which is a positive factor for the single European currency. It was indicated the price moderate growth as the oil "bearish" trend does not allow the EUR/USD "bulls" to rise too high.

    Sellers have rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1150, thus opening the way for the level of 1.1050 testing. The downward correction is not supported by volumes and it is developing amid the weak volatility. However the bears broke through the level of 1.1050 downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 1.0925. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.0790 will become the next one. Then the pair can decrease to the level of 1.0670.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The main event of the day was the UK CPI publication. The inflation is traditionally indicator №1 for the currency market and in this regard, there was an increased volatility.

    More than a month the resistance level of 1.5670 has been holding back buyers. The price tested this level again on the yesterday’s trades.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5775, 1.5970.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The course of the trade is determined by the world leading stock exchanges sentiments. The growth leaders were the Nasdaq high-tech index that indicates the investors’ risk appetite. In such circumstances, there appeared the demand for the carry trade transactions through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

    The July building permits weak reports in the US was reflected in the national currency. According to the data, instead of the expected reduction to 1.232M the index decreased to 1.119M, the previous data is 1.337M.

    The pair USD/JPY has been consolidating around the support level of 124.30 for a long time.

    The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    If the price fixates below the support 123.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

    Posts : 551
    Join date : 2014-07-02

    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:37 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    21.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The Fed minutes put pressure on the US dollar. The dollar was sold against all of its major opponents which led to its decrease at the end of the day. The meeting minutes have not convinced investors that interest rates increase would be in September. The protocol content that noted fears, concerning the dollar growth, can have a negative impact on the inflation, an economic growth and foreign trade; it has significantly increased the doubts that the Fed will have to tighten policy in the short term. However, the pressure on the dollar was moderate. Investors focused their attention on the number of initial jobless claims week data which was expected with slight reduction up to 272 thousand from 274 thousand. In fact the jobless claims number increased by 4 thousand to 277 thousand.

    The pair EUR/USD had strengthened after the US inflation moderately negative data. The July base rate remained at the level of 1.8%, still traders had expected it at the level of 1.9%.

    By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had symbolically strengthened. The low oil prices held back bulls from the active offensive.

    The world leading stock markets sales continued to put pressure on the pair USD/JPY which at the end of the day decreased.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The German 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to its US and the UK counterparts that indicate the European assets low investment appeal. The United States published the jobless claims report, which was expected with a slight reduction - up to 272 thousand from 274 thousand. The data showed an increase up to 277 thousand.

    The support level of 1.1050 rebound sent the downward correction upwards. The immediate growth target was the resistance level of 1.1150 that was broken upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1260. After breaking 1.1260 the buyers may go to 1.1420.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK retail sales rose up in July – it is a clear sign that the consumer spending will continue to stimulate economic growth in the third quarter. The National Statistics Office said on Thursday that retail sales amounted to 0.1% m/m and 4.2% y/y in July. Meanwhile, the US published the initial jobless claims. The initial jobless claims number became more than 4 thousand having increased to 277 thousand.

    There was formed the short- term consolidation above the mark of 1.5670 that is playing the role of a strong support after its breakthrough, besides there was this level the short-term breakthrough.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    The approach to the level of 1.5670 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5775, 1.5950.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The China instability with the oil prices sharp decline contributed to the US stock market sales. Against this background, it was expected the Tokyo stock market negative trend which will contribute to demand for the yen as a funding currency. Investors' attention was also directed to the initial jobless claims. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 4 thousand having increased to 277 thousand.

    The long-term price consolidation was below the strong resistance level of 124.30 that was followed by the prices rebound downwards and the support level of 123.50 breakthrough.

    The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 121.60.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    The dollar fell considerably against the Swiss franc after the FOMC minutes publication somewhat reduced speculations about the September rate hike. The traders’ attention is directed to the initial jobless claims week report. The data showed an increase up to 277 thousand. According to the previous month revised data, the Switzerland trade surplus was 3,741 million francs compared with 3509 billion in July.

    Bears broke through the support level of 0.9650.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9460. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to short with the first target – 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the levels of 0.9370 and 0.9280.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

    avatar
    ValdisFFS

    Posts : 551
    Join date : 2014-07-02

    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:58 pm


    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    24.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US dollar was sold off along the entire market, still the greatest its loss was against the euro and the yen. Obviously, the US Central Bank statements convinced investors that the September policy tightening is unlikely to happen and there are arguments to close positions that were opened earlier on the expectations, relating to the US interest rates growth.

    The Euro zone positive news supported the pair EUR/USD. The Germany producer price index exceeded expectations, demonstrating the zero change in July on the month basis and compared to the previous year the rate reduction was -1.3%. In addition, last week the European Commission approved the financial aid third program first tranche to Greece from the planned 86 billion euros, planned for three years.

    During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat amid the oil market "bearish" sentiment as well as the UK retail sales moderately positive statistics: the July growth was 0.1% m/m while it was expected + 0.4% m/m.

    The Japanese currency has considerably strengthened its position against the dollar amid the latter major currencies decrease as the Fed is unlikely to change the interest rates in September. The yen was supported by the government bond yields and the stock market indices decrease as well.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The German consumers economic expectations have fallen for the third consecutive month to 16.6 points from 18.4 points in July, having added the GfK that despite the optimism decline; consumers are still waiting for the European economy growth. Meanwhile, the US and the Germany government securities credit spreads reduced yesterday which is a positive factor for the euro.

    The upward trend continues its strengthening, having broken through the strong resistance levels of 1.1150 and 1.1260 on its way, now the price is trading above the latter level.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1420, 1.1530.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK government bond yields are declining relative to its US and Germany counterparts, making the British assets low attractive for investors.

    Sellers tried to return the price below the support level of 1.5670, but without the subsequent breakthrough. There was formed a short-term consolidation above this level and there is a chance for the rebound upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5950 will be opened after this breakthrough.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The China stock market volatility is reflected in the Asia, Europe and the US equity markets which is a negative factor for the pair. Investors do not have "risk appetite" and against this background, we see the carry trade transactions closure and demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

    After the support level of 123.50 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 122.40 breakthrough.

    The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is at 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 121.60, 120.40.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    Switzerland presented the trade balance that is the payments balance largest component. The index is: 3.741V 3.509V against the earlier forecast of 2.600V. The index that is above expectations indicates the bullish market.

    The pair USD/CHF broke through the level of 0.9540. This level breakthrough has opened the way to the support area of 0.9460 that was tested.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9460, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to short with the first target – 0.9370. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:39 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    25.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The market is more and more confident that the policy tightening is not to be in September, but, moreover, it will happen in December or even in the early 2016. It caused the US dollar decline by more than 150 points against the euro and about 140 points against the yen. The pound neither decreased nor increased against the US dollar and neutrally closed the trade on the opening prices.

    Yesterday by the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had strengthened amid the German government bonds yields relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The euro bulls can be supported by the euro area economic data, presented by the manufacturing and the European bloc service sectors activity index preliminary estimates.

    The pair GBP/USD was in a flat of 1.5670 -1.5715 amid the oil market "bearish" sentiment. The UK economic data have shown the state finances improvement. The pair increased by the end of the trades.

    The Japanese stock market decline put pressure on the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had decreased. In addition, the yen growth was supported by the US stock market decline and the US "treasuries" decrease.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    Investors are massively closing the carry trade operations and go to the funding currency that is the euro and the Japanese yen. Now investors choose these two currencies as they have high liquidity and low interest rates. In addition, the German government bond yields rose up relative to their US and the UK counterparts last week that increases the investments attractiveness into the European assets and will support demand for the single European currency.

    Buyers raised the price upwards, breaking through the strong resistance levels of 1.1420 and 1.1530 on its way. The resistance level of 1.1710 was tested then the pair rebounded downwards and closed he trades around the level of 1.1590. The trade volumes are in the increased zone.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1530, the next one is 1.1420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1650.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1650, the next one is 1.1710.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    On the one hand, the UK energy sector and, on the other hand, demand for the US dollar depends on the Brent crude oil dynamics. The USA data s as well as the crude oil reserves increases. The Brent shows the downward trend continuation.

    Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.5670. However, after bears attempted to break through the level of 1.5670 downwards with the downward correction. Then the pair increased and tested the level of 1.5775.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.5775. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.5950.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    Investors are escaping from the "risk assets" that will support the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Now we expect the "bearish" sentiment against the US dollar on the bond market: the US 10-year government bond yields are declining against the Japanese counterparts which is a positive factor for the yen.

    After the support level of 120.40 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 119.20 break. The two levels breakthroughs were on the increased volumes, sellers are gaining strength.

    The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 117.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.




    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:55 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    26.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US dollar opened the trading week in the negative area – the dollar index basket lost 1.5%, having reached its lowest level for seven months. The Asian, European and American stock markets have added impulse to the dollar sales. The US dollar was sold against all the majors; as a result the dollar continued its decline and recorded losses. The US dollar showed the biggest minus against the euro and the yen which were bought out not only amid frustration over the Fed policy outlook, but also as the refuge currency that was sold earlier in the transactions on the interest rates difference. However, when the stock market began to form reducing correction at the end of the trading session, the dollar got little support and was able to neutralize some of the losses.

    The pair EUR/USD had strengthened amid the investors’ escape from the "risky assets". Nevertheless the pair fell by the end of the day.

    The pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK government bond yields increase. However by the end of the day the pair showed a sharp decrease.

    The pair USD/JPY had declined. The demand reasons for the Japanese currency are similar as for the euro that is the carry trade transactions closure. This pair also changed the movement direction and corrected upwards.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The world has witnessed the capital escape from the "risky assets". The panic corporate bonds sales supported the demand for the single European currency as a funding currency. In addition, there was the Germany and the US negative government bond yields decline in the bond market which makes investments in the US assets less attractive that is also a positive factor for the pair EUR/USD. By the end of the trades the pair showed a rebound downwards.

    The euro strengthened against the dollar by 340 points and now there is a corrective rebound from the resistance level of 1.1710 with the support target near the level of 1.1420.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1420, the next one is 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1530, the next one is at 1.1590.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 1.1530 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1590.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    Despite the fact that the Brent crude oil is trading below $43/barrel - the British currency does not feel discomfort and is gradually moving upwards. Yesterday the UK government bond yields increased significantly against the US and Germany counterparts, making the British assets attractive to financial institutions. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the trades amid the dollar strengthening.

    Having broken the strong resistance level of 1.5670, buyers actively continued to raise the price upwards on the increased volumes. The current resistance level is the mark of 1.5775. Having tested this level the pair rebounded downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5950 will be opened after this breakthrough.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The world leading stock markets downward trend is gaining strength. The capital outflow is also observed from the emerging markets that led to the highly remunerative currencies sales. In this regard, investors are massively closing the carry trade transactions which contribute to strong demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The debt market is also opposed to the US dollar. However the dollar strengthened by the end of the day.

    After the support level of 120.40 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 119.20 break. Then the pair rebounded and broke this level upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20, 118.40.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:18 pm


    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    27.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US currency strengthened against all of its major competitors at the end of the day and leveled part of the previous session losses against the euro and the yen. It returned almost all its losses against the pound and significantly strengthened. Such a turn of events was amid the fact that the China Central Bank lowered interest rates and reserve requirements, thereby assuring investors' willingness to take economic stimulating measures.

    After the Monday and Tuesday global stock markets heated sales - it was already possible to observe the opposite trend on Wednesday. Demand for Asian, European and the US corporate bonds contributed to the short positions closure against the US currency. The US consumer confidence and new home sales positive data have increased demand for the dollar. Against this background, the trades within the pair EUR/USD have finished with the quotations decrease. The EU also presented the economic positive data, but they poorly supported the euro. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased against the general sentiment within the dollar and in connection with the UK empty macroeconomic calendar. The pair USD/JPY is consolidating. Earlier this pair strengthened due to the fact that investors had stopped to take refuge in the safe haven yen.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The stock markets panic is gradually leveling which is a negative factor for the single European currency.

    Meanwhile, the German and the US 10 -year government bond yields fell to the new multi-year low yesterday, making investments in the US assets less attractive.

    After a sharp growth to the resistance level of 1.1710 the euro turned out towards correction. The corrective weakness reached the strong support level of 1.1420. Sellers managed to break through this level.

    The price is finding the support at 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    The approach to the support level of 1.1260 can lead to the price rebound upwards. The targhetra of the upward rebound will be the resistance levels of 1.1530, 1.1590.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK government bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts, making investments in British assets less attractive to institutional investors. Secondly, the commodity market sales will support the US currency.

    Buyers have updated the previous day maximum of 1.5805, but they failed to continue the bullish trend. The upward trend reversed in the short-term correction. The price broke through the support levels of 1.5775, 1.5550 and decreased to the level of 1.5460.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

    There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We expect the downward movement will be continued now. The potential target is the support level of 1.5390.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    Now there is observed correction after strong sales in the world leading stock markets. Capitals are coming back to the stock market and are going from the safe assets - gold and bond yields. In this context, investors will open the carry trade transactions which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

    The US dollar is trading different directional. The price is trading above the support level of 119.20.

    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to the support level of 118.40.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:28 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    28.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The Japanese and the US stock indices have grown, pointing out to the risk appetite increase. It supported the US currency and the US dollar solidly strengthened against all of its major opponents by the end of the day. The additional factor that increased the dollar popularity was the US economic data. The dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 95.21.

    Two key factors contributed to the dollar growth. Firstly, the durable goods orders release was better than the consensus forecast - sales increased by 2% in July while traders expected decrease by 0.5%.

    Secondly, there are positive factors in the debt market. During the day the US Treasury 10-years bond yields were increasing steadily upwards that contributed to the channel capital inflow into the US assets and ultimately it supported demand for the dollar.

    Against this background, the EUR/USD pair trades ended with the quotations decrease; the pair GBP/USD had declined by the end of the day and the USD/JPY had strengthened.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    Yesterday the German and the US negative government bond yields increased by 6 basis points. In addition, there was the second quarter US GDP second assessment published which was expected within the forecasted medians. As well as the number of jobless claims weekly report that was expected 274K against the previous 277K. the data came out at the level of 271K.

    The euro sharp growth against the dollar was replaced by the no less sharp downward correction. The signal for the correction continuation served the levels of 1.1420 and 1.1260 breakthrough.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1420.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK government bond yields are declining relative to the US counterparts. In addition, the moderately positive macroeconomic data output supported the demand for the dollar. The initial jobless claims were expected with decline to 274 000 against the previous 277 000. The release showed a decrease to 271 000.

    The strong support level of 1.5640 has been broken through downwards. The price decline was stopped at the support of 1.5390.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 1.5390 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    Panic sales in the world leading stock markets have stopped. Against this background, investors’ escape from the carry trade transactions has practically stopped. In this context, the "safe assets" such as gold and the Japanese yen were not in demand.

    The second quarter US GDP second assessment can be revised in the positive direction against the strong macroeconomic releases. The number of jobless claims was expected to 274K against the previous 277K. In fact there was 271K.

    The US dollar partially returned positions against the yen. The pair is going upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    Switzerland presented the report, indicating the country industrial orders volume in the second quarter: -2.4% vs. -4.8 which have been revised from -0.9%.

    The Commerce Department revised the durable goods orders data for June upwards (to + 4.1% from 3.4%) which improved GDP growth economists’ forecasts in the second quarter.

    The dollar sharp decline against the franc was stopped at the support level of 0.9280, but then it turned up towards the correction. The dollar reached the resistance of 0.9650.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9650. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the levels of 0.9750, 0.9850.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:49 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    31.08.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The American currency continued its winning streak at the end of the week – the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 95.81. The Japanese, European and the US stock indices growth have added arguments for the concerns reduction about the world economic growth, but the US GDP strong data and other indicators increased the demand for the US dollar which further strengthened against major opponents. The second quarter US GDP second estimate was revised in the positive direction by 1.4% to the level of 3.7%. The US jobless claims number has declined by 6 thousand for the last week. Positive economic data once again led investors to think about the federal funds rate increase at the FOMC September meeting.

    There was the world leading stock markets moderate demand during the day which also put pressure on the funding currencies that are the euro and the Japanese yen. In this context, the US currency enjoyed confident demand against its major competitors. As a result, the EUR/USD pair has finished the trading day with the price decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined by the end of the day and the USD/JPY had increased.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    There was again the Germany and the US negative bond yields which makes investments in the US assets attractive. Investors are studying the Germany inflation data. The CPI increased to 0,0% from 0,2% that was earlier.

    The euro corrective decrease reached the strong support level of 1.1260 that was broken downwards. The small rebound upwards was formed. The resistance level of 1.1260retesting was followed by the rebound downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.1050 and 1.0925.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK National Statistics Office published the second GDP estimate for the second quarter. Most of macroeconomic releases pointed to the fact that there will not be revision in the positive direction, as the unemployment in the second quarter has grown by 0.1%. On the other hand, the United States revised the first GDP estimate by 1.4%.

    Sellers have broken through two strong support levels of 1.5460, 1.5390.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    The sellers need to break below 1.5300 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks 1.5200, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The Japan retail sales rose by 1.6% y/y in July, still the growth by 1.1% y/y was expected. Last month the unemployment rate was 3.3%, which is 0.1% lower than in June and below economists' expectations by 3.4%. Household spending declined by 0.2 % in July with the price correction after a decrease by 2.0% in June. Economists had expected an increase by 1.0%.

    The pair shows the dollar’s strengthening. The resistance level of 121.60 was tested.

    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    We recommend going long with the first target – 122.40. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level of 123.50.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    The Swiss GDP for the second quarter increased by 0.2% q/q and rose up by 1.2% y/y. The data was better than economists' expectations by 0.1% q/q 0.8% y/y. The private consumption growth was 0.3%, investments in equipment + 1.5%, Swiss exports fell by 0.2% in the second quarter.

    The US dollar is recovering its positions, reaching the strong resistance level of 0.9650. This level was short-term broken upwards then there was a rebound downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9650. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:48 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    01.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The demand for the US dollar has been returning to the high levels amid the concerns about the further global economy reducing prospects. Another factor that supported the US dollar was a political component, mentioned in the Fed top management speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

    The US currency finished the trades in the "red zone" - the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 96.15. Traders continued to win back the US GDP strong data for the second quarter. The US two-year Treasury bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations, fell to the level of 0.724%. Financial markets are beginning to "lay" the FOMC monetary policy tightening. The US GDP growth high rate indicates that it is unlikely to be the China strong economic slowdown. As the risks can be leveled, the US Federal Reserve can raise interest rates.

    As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished the trading day with a decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined as well and the USD/JPY had increased.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The US, Germany and the UK negative bond yields began to decline which traditionally causes demand for the euro. The leading stock markets showed weakness at the end of the last week which also supports the demand for the euro as a funding currency.

    The downward correction stopped near the level of 1.1150.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1410.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK banks were closed on Monday. The Brent crude oil growth is increasing the UK energy sector revenues which are about 10% of GDP. On the other hand, the UK bond yields are declining relative to the US and Germany counterparts which levels the British assets investments attractiveness and restricts demand for the pound.

    There was the support level of 1.5370 false breakthrough. The short level breakthrough on the lower volumes was followed by the price return above the level where a consolidation will be probably formed.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200. In case of a pull back the pair may return to the level 1.5460.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    According to the Japanese industrial production volume has decreased contrary to our expectations last month. This indicator was 0.6% compared with 1.1% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate to be 0.1% last month.

    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a growth, the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive area now. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20. Otherwise the price will grow to 122.40.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:18 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    02.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US dollar declined against the yen amid the investors’ reaction to the stock market decline and the rates reduction against the currencies which are used to finance the carry trade. That day the debt market was quiet: the credit spreads remained practically unchanged compared with the last week closure.

    The trade volume was relatively low because of the London market closure due to the holiday, but also because of the expectations about the US coming Friday August employment data which can indicate that the Fed would raise interest rates in September.

    On Saturday the Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said in his statement that the US inflation would likely be growing in case from the dollar growth pressure decline which may allow the Fed to gradually raise rates.

    It revived the idea that the Fed would start raising interest rates in September and helped the dollar growth against a range of currencies, including the pound and the franc.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    Yesterday the world leading stock markets showed weakness that is a positive factor for the single European currency. The carry trade transactions will contribute to the euro demand as a funding currency. The debt market dynamics starts sending the bullish signal for the dollar.

    The Forex market analysis is showing that the price continues the weak upward correction. The resistance level of 1.1260 was broken upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to short with the first target – 1.1260. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.1150.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The negative factor is the British currency revaluation against the euro that is its main trading partner. The British pound growth reduces the Old World products competitiveness. The oil prices decline supports the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

    The pound exchange rate began a new corrective movement round after an unsuccessful attempt to continue the downward trend. However the corrective movement was short-term. The pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the support level of 1.5300.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We recommend going short with the first target - 1.5200. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.5100.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The Japanese and the US negative bond yields grow that is a bullish factor for the dollar as they increase the investments attractiveness in the US assets. The world leading stock markets are showing their weakness that on the contrary will support demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

    Analyzing the yen exchange rate we see that the price is decreasing. The support level of 120.40 was broken downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the sellers may go to 118.40.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:23 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    03.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The euro was not able to take advantage of the positive news background which indicates the absence of strong buyers in the market. The euro zone unemployment fell by 0.2% by the end of July, indicating an economic growth that is a positive factor for the currency. The ISM manufacturing sector indicator has showed the lowest value since May 2013 which is a negative signal for the Fed. Despite these positive factors, the London sales ended with the euro decline which indicates the bears’ predominance in the market.

    The pair GBP/USD has decreased. The British currency is showing weakness amid the fundamental factors. The debt market is also pessimistic about the British currency: the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to its US and Germany counterparts. Nevertheless the pound strengthened by the end of the trades.

    Earlier the pair USD/JPY has decreased. The world leading stock exchanges negative dynamics will contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The stock markets negative dynamics supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The US private sector ADP employment data was the highlight of the day. The ADP release was worse than the consensus forecast – the euro received a short-term support. The data came lower than expected 201 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 190 thousand.

    Meanwhile the euro/ dollar pair continued its correction. However the pair could not fixate above the broken resistance level of 1.1260 and the trades closed below this level.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The Euro zone and the UK bond yields have been increasing for five months in a row which is a negative factor for the UK economic growth. Yesterday the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to their US and Germany counterparts. Markit Economics published the UK construction sector PMI index data.

    The pair pound/dollar is trading under the pressure. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300, but the pair closed the trades above this level.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The Japan, Germany and the US width indicator points out to the strong sellers’ presence in corporate securities. The exchange trading funds, investing in Emerging Markets, again noted the strong capital outflow that traditionally occurs in sales periods. On the other hand, the debt market points out to the investments attractiveness in US assets.

    The pair dollar/ yen has tested the support level of 119.20 and increased to the resistance level of 120.40. The pair rebounded downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    We expect the 119.20 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 118.40.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:56 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    04.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US currency was able to return some positions which had been lost the day before - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.85. There was the ADP private sector employment level report published. The August data did not meet the market expectations - the actual number of jobs, created in the private sector, amounted to 190 thousand against the forecasted 201 thousand. Nevertheless, traders chose to ignore the publication and continued to buy the US currency. The United States published the jobless claims weekly report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 12 thousand having increased to 282 thousand.

    The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the Germany and the US negative government bond yields. On Thursday investors focused their attention on the ECB decision on the monetary policy and on the Mario Draghi's press conference. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%.

    During the day the pair GBP/USD was within the flat. Investors took profits on the short positions after the six days downward movement. On Thursday investors study the August UK service sector business activity index. The index decreased to 55,6.

    The pair USD/JPY had increased amid demand for the "risky assets". Nevertheless, then the pair decreased.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The German bond are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts and the stock markets experienced moderate demand for corporate securities, thereby reducing demand for the euro as a funding currency. The ECB announced its monetary policy meeting results and according to them the rate will remain unchanged at the level of 0.05%.

    The pair euro/dollar continues to trade in downward trend. The support level of 1.1150 was broken and the pair is under the pressure for reduction.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to their US counterparts that reduces the investments attractiveness in British assets and does not contribute to the UK national currency demand. The UK service sector business activity decreased contrary to the traders’ expectations and amounted to 55.6 compared with 57.4 the previous month.

    The pair pound/dollar is under pressure now. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300 and continues the downward movement.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5200 and 1.5100.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The leading NASDAQ high-tech index indicates demand for the "risky assets" which is a negative factor for the "safe assets" that traditionally include the Japanese yen.

    In addition, the US two year government bond yields increase which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate is also a positive factor for the dollar.

    The pair dollar/yen was forming a growth structure. Having tested the resistance level of 120.40 the pair rebounded downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    The dollar has grown against the Swiss franc amid the global stock markets fragile stabilization.

    The pair dollar/franc continues its growth. The pair broke through the resistance level of 0.9650 and tested the level of 0.9750.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:35 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    07.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000.

    The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pair’s growth.

    The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data.

    Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets.

    All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand.

    The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

    The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K.

    The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected.

    The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:46 am

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    07.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US currency did not continue its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.36. There was published the more important indicator showing the labor market current trends, namely the unemployment trend. It is Non-Farms. It was expected increase to 220,000 but the release showed the decrease to 173,000. Earlier the data was 245,000 from the revised 215,000.

    The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the ECB negative macroeconomic forecasts. During the day investors actively sold out the European currency amid the too soft Mario Draghi comments. However the trades on Friday closed with the pair’s growth.

    The pair GBP/USD declined after the UK PMI service sector weak data: 55.6 vs 57.4 earlier. The forecasted data was 57.6. The UK service sector business activity was lower than the predicted values, but the US data turned out to be much stronger. However, the dollar growth has been restrained because of the claims number weak data.

    Only in relation to the Japanese yen, the dollar failed to increase. The pair USD/JPY has also finished the trades in the negative region amid the Japanese and the US government bond yields decline. It looks like the yen returned to its status as the "reserve currency" and now those traders invest their capital into the yen who do not want increased risks.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The debt market dynamics also points to the bearish trend development: the German government bond yields decreased relative to their US and the UK counterparts which reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets.

    All investors' attention is focused on the US labor market publication. The unemployment index decreased to 5.1% from 5.3%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came lower than expected 220 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 173thousand.

    The pair euro/dollar is consolidating after the sharp decline. However the pair showed the growth and tested the resistance level of 1.1150.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We may expect the fall towards 1.1050 further on we expect a growth to 1.1260 where the pair rebound downwards.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK/US services sector indicators differential is increasing in favor of the latter, making it vulnerable to the British currency. There were sales in the product market again that will provide support to the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

    The pair pound/dollar has completed the minimum reduction target. The support level of 1.5200 was broken downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5300.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4975.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    There was the moderately positive dynamics in the stock markets and in this regard, investors do not need to direct their capital into the "safe haven" yen. Nom Farms were published. The data showed the decrease to 173K vs earlier 245K. The economist forecasted 220K.

    The dollar/yen pair failed to develop the growth wave and is trading the decline. The support level of 119.20 was broken downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    After the support level of 118.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.80 will be opened.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    The August consumer price index fell by 1.4% in annual terms after a decline by 1.3 % the previous month. Last change was in line with economists' expectations. On the month basis consumer prices fell by 0.2 % in August after the 0.6 % decline in July. The month decline was also expected.

    The pair dollar/franc continues to grow. A consolidation was formed at the resistance level of 0.9750.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:49 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    08.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    There was volatile dynamics at the end of the last week. The main event was the US labor market data publication. This release results are always uneven. On the one hand, the Non-Farm index came out worse than the consensus forecast at the level of 173 thousand. On the other hand, the unemployment rate more rapidly reduced as well as the average earnings increased. The dollar came under pressure in recent weeks as the China slowing growth pace prompted investors to temper the first Fed rate increase expectations. The dollar has grown against the commodity currencies that were contributed partially by the oil prices decline.

    At the beginning of the new week the euro has grown against the dollar; the pair EUR/USD has increased. Earlier the euro fell to the two-week low against the dollar after the European Central Bank pointed to the current program QE increase possibility and also lowered its growth and inflation forecast. The yen showed its decrease at the beginning of the trading week, the pair USD/JPY started the week with a growth, the pair GBP/USD has increased as well.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The trades were determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. The US two-year bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations are confidently growing that will support the demand for the dollar. On the contrary, the stock market is showing a negative trend which in turn is a positive factor for the euro as a funding currency.

    The price started the weak upward correction. The resistance level o 1.1150 was broken upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050, 1.0925.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    There is the US and the UK credit spreads increase in the bond market which is a positive factor for the US currency. The commodity market also sends a negative signal to the British currency. The Brent crude oil bearish trend will put pressure on the pound, because the raw materials cost is denominated in the US currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the yesterday’s trades.

    The price is correcting upwards. The pair broke upwards the resistance level of 1.5200.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    There was a holiday in the United States on Monday and the financial markets were closed on the occasion of Labor Day. Last week there was negative dynamics on the world's leading stock exchanges where bearish sentiments prevailed. The moderate demand for the dollar was forecasted amid the US Treasury bond yields increase.

    The price has also started the weak correction. The pair broke the level of 119.20 upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We recommend going short with the first target – 118.40. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 117.80.




    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:56 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    09.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The trade volume was low during the Monday’s trades amid USA holiday. They have not published any important macroeconomic statistics. As a result, traders did not hurry to trade. On Tuesday the volatility increased on the market.

    The euro showed mixed movements against the US dollar remaining in the narrow range with a growth amid the almost empty European calendar and the Labor Day celebration in the United States. The Germany and the euro zone statistics had a little impact. As it became known, the Germany industrial production rose up by 0.7 % in August, nearly offsetting the previous decline by 0.9 percent in June which was revised from -1.4 %. It has been the fastest growth till this year. However, it was slower than experts expected (one per cent).

    The pound has significantly grown against the dollar, updating the Friday maximum. Analysts believe that happened due to the US currency sales resumption amid the weak trades.

    The US dollar finished the trades with a growth against the yen having partially recovered amid the European and Japanese stock markets increase due to the risk appetite growth.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The euro area inflationary pressure has been practically absent from the year beginning and the further oil market sales will have deflationary impact on the economy. In addition, the US and Germany government bond yields are increasing that points out to the investments attractiveness in the US assets.

    The price continues the price correction. The price is trading above the level of 1.1150.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1050. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.0925.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The US unemployment rate has fallen by 0.5% since the beginning of this year while the UK unemployment rate has fallen by 0.1%. The Brent crude oil is below the psychological level of $ 50/barrel. Considering the negative fundamental background we expect new sales wave in the short term that will also support the US currency.

    Meanwhile the pound exchange rate fixated above the critical line 1.5200. The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the level of 1.5300. the level of 1.5390 was tested.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    The buyers need to break above 1.5460 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The stock markets sales increased the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The second quarter Japanese gross domestic product fell to -0.3% which is higher than economists' expectations by -0.4%. The GDP declined by 1.2% on the annualized basis compared to the previous three months in the period from April to June and it was also higher than the forecast by -1.8%.

    The price is still correcting. The pair tested the support level of 119.20 and rebounded upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:05 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    10.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US currency has slightly strengthened after it lost its positions against its main competitors earlier - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.92. The US labor market mixed data failed to convince investors that the economy was strong enough to hike the interest rates at the September meeting. Some investors also believe that the labor market instability and the China economy uncertainty will force the Fed to wait until the end of the year to tighten the monetary policy.

    The pair EUR/USD decreased. Earlier the pair has strengthened amid the euro zone GDP second quarter positive report. Some analytics believe that the GDP increased by 0.4% is better than expected 0.1%.

    The GBP/USD pair has strengthened amid the Brent oil growth. The pound has substantially grown against the US currency amid the risk appetite recovery. The GBP/USD was also supported by the stock markets growth. Nevertheless, the pair closed the trades with a decrease.

    The pair USD/JPY finished the trades in the "green zone". Demand for the risky assets put pressure on the "safe haven" yen.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The demand for the “risky assets" is a negative factor for the euro. In addition, the bond market is sending negative signals for bulls. The US and German 10-year government bond yields are increasing that reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness and do not support the demand for the euro.

    The pair’s corrective movement stopped. The pair rebounded downwards and tested the support level of 1.1150.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925.



    Pound (JPY)

    General overview

    The UK trade deficit increased more than expected in July that amounted to 11.08 billion pounds from 8.51 billion pounds the previous month. Experts expected that the trade deficit would increase to 9.30 billion pounds. The last month UK manufacturing production volume (m/m) has decreased contrary to expectations, reaching 0.8% compared with 0.2% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate by 0.2% for the last month.

    The pound rate stopped not so strong upward movement. After a short-term consolidation at the resistance level of 1.5390 the pair rebounded downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the level of 1.5550.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The Japan and the US government bond yields show the moderate increase which plays into the bulls’ hands. If the risk appetite keeps growing the Japanese yen may show weakness as a funding currency.

    We cannot ignore the US two-year Treasury bonds growth which reflects expectations for the Fed interest rates.

    The price continues its upward correction. The bears broke through the resistance level of 120.40.

    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    After the resistance level of 121.60 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 122.40 will be opened.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Thu Sep 10, 2015 8:53 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    11.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US dollar lost the early earned positions. Meanwhile, traders turn their attention to the Fed monetary policy meeting which will be held on September 16-17. The dollar growth against the major currencies was caused by the expectations, concerning the Bank of China new monetary easing measures. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 6 thousand having fallen to 275 thousand.

    During the day the pair EUR/USD was in the flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. However, the pair increased by the end of the trades.

    The pair GBP/USD had decreased. The weak economic statistics was published: the industrial production fell in August while the trade deficit has grown. On Thursday traders drew their attention to the Bank of England meeting and its minutes. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

    The pair USD/JPY decreased after the powerful growth in the Tokyo stock market. Then the pair showed a flat. The Japan Nikkei index showed the biggest session growth after the China Finance Ministry stated that it intended to implement fresh measures to stimulate the economic growth.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The "risk appetite" growth among investors put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The Germany and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that supported the demand for the dollar. Now the other hand, investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Nevertheless, the euro increased by the end of the trades.

    The euro is showing that now the movement strengthened. The euro grew and the resistance leve of 1.1260 was broken through upwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1325. After breaking 1.1325 the buyers may go to 1.1410.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The main event of the day was the Bank of England monetary policy meeting results. The debt market is also sending a negative signal: the UK and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that reduces the British assets investments’ attractiveness. However, after the decrease the pound strengthened.

    The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the level of 1.5460.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The world leading stock markets growth put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The United States published the jobless claims release. The data showed the decrease by 6 000. It is impossible to ignore the commodity market sales.

    The oil, gold, copper, platinum and other commodities quotations fell very much which is a positive factor for the dollar as the raw materials cost is denominated in US currency.

    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    The pair USD/CHF has fallen. The UK presented the initial jobless claims report: there was expected 275K while earlier it was expected 282K. The data came out at the forecasted median. Investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The American monetary regulator will announce its interest rates decision just in a week.

    The pair dollar/franc is again correcting. The support level of 0.9750 was broken through downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:10 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    14.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US currency showed weakness against its major counterparts - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.49. The Labor Department published the initial jobless claims report, the numbers fell by 6,000 and reached 275,000 with the seasonal correction. Economists expected 275,000 initial claims.

    The pair EUR/USD increased amid the European stock exchanges decrease. The dollar significantly depreciated against the euro which was caused by the US mixed statistics.

    The pair GBP/USD strengthened amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US counterparts. The pound markedly rose against the US dollar, having reached the two-week low at the same time that was caused by the Central Bank of England meeting results and the subsequent statements. As expected, during the meeting the BoE MPC members voted to keep the interest rates at the level of 0.5%. However, the week closed with the pair rebound downwards.

    The USD/JPY was in a flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The yen fell slightly despite the Japanese manufacturing sector large enterprises sentiment positive data.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The world leading markets instability influences to the single European currency. The world leading stock indicators do not show a steady upward trend. Last week the European stock indicators decreased more than by 1%. The US indicators showed a growth on the contrary. The high-tech sector was in leaders which traditionally indicates the demand for the “risky assets".

    The euro/dollar is growing. The pair rebounded upwards from the support level of 1.1260 and the resistance level of 1.1325 break through.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1410, the next one is at 1.1530.

    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

    Trading recommendations

    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1530 and then towards to the level of 1.1590.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The British currency has been ignoring the negative news for two trading days which indicates the strong buyers’ presence. The UK government bond yields increased relative to their US and Germany counterparts which contributes to the capital flow into the UK assets.

    The pair pound/dollar continued its upwards consolidation. After the resistance level of 1.5460 testing the pair rebounded downwards.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the mark of 1.5550.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The world leading stock markets do not give strong signals on the purchase and sale. In this regard, now it becomes clear whether investors open the carry trade operations or close them. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing in favor of the US dollar. The US producer prices index was published. It was assumed that the negative data would put pressure on the US currency.

    The pair dollar/yen continues to stay in the consolidation. The pair is trading above the support level of 120.40.

    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 121.60, 122.40.



    Franc (CHF)

    General overview

    The US dollar is declining against the euro amid the weakening expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase the rate at the September meeting. The US producers’ prices index was expected to decrease in August by 0.1% compared with the previous month and will fall by 0.9% compared to last year August. The expectations concerning the producer prices and consumer confidence decline deepen the doubts that the Fed will raise interest rates in September.

    The pair dollar/franc continues to trade in a narrow range. By the end of the week the pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 0.9750. We believe that is a correction.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:29 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    15.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    Last week the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the German government bonds yields growth relative to their US counterparts. The European currency continued to strengthen in the pair with the US dollar as investors found no support in the American economic fundamental publication. However the pair decreased by the end of the trades.

    During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat. The oil prices decline has not allowed the British currency to take advantage from the US consumer confidence weak data.

    During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in the flat amid the quotations moderate decrease in the world leading stock markets. Nevertheless the trades closed with the pair’s decrease.

    This week the US Federal Reserve meeting is in the center of our attention. There are concerns about the possible stock market collapse amid the rates increase. The reason for the rate increase can be the core inflation growth from 1.8% y/y to 1.9% y/y which is published on Wednesday. The Fed officials have repeatedly stated that it is not necessary to wait for the exact target of 2.0% to raise interest rates.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    The July Eurozone industrial production moderately positive data may support the European currency in the short term. The data came out better then forecasted 0,3%: in fact it showd 0,6%. Meanwhile, the bond market is sending bearish signals: the Germany and the US bond yields are again increasing which reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness.

    The price continued its upward movement. There was a short-term resistance level of 1.1325 breakthrough. Then the pair fell under this level.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 1.1410 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1530.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize in the range of 48.00 -50.50. This factor has a negative impact on the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The UK government bond yields show a moderate growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts that supports the British currency.

    The pair is trading in a flat. After the resistance level of 1.5460 the price tested the support level of 1.5390.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

    Trading recommendations

    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5550. After breaking 1.5550 the buyers may go to 1.5670.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The Friday BSI large manufacturing business conditions strong report indicates the manufacturing sector business activity growth which is a positive factor for the Japanese economy and may support the national currency in the short term. In addition, the US and the Japanese government bond yields are declining that reduces the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets.

    The price started a weak correction. The pair broke through th support level of 120.40.

    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:58 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    16.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    There was a calm trading in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of this week. Almost all the major pairs remained within their ranges as traders continue to be nervous anticipating the Fed.

    By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the Brent crude oil decline by 3%. The only notable macroeconomic release was the euro area industrial production report which was significantly higher than expected. The reaction to it was minimal as the market sentiments and the foreign stock exchanges dynamics are playing the single currency driver role.

    The GBP/USD has sharply fallen. Earlier it symbolically strengthened amid the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The currency faced with the increased volatility because of “the Central Bank race": today the Bank of England like the Fed is inclined to interest rates increase.

    The pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the capital flight from the "risky assets" into the funding currency. This week the Bank of Japan decided not to change the monetary policy course, saying that the economy and inflation can be recovered with the current incentives. By the end of the trades the pair strengthened.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    There were not great changes on the debt market at the beginning of the week: the Germany and the US government bond yields were in the flat. The Germany business climate data, presented by the Zew Institute, were of particular interest. The index decreased more then the forecasted median: 12,1 vs 18,4. The index was 25,0 in August. Investors received the US retail sales report which is expected to reach the consensus forecast amid the household income growth and the unemployment reduction. However, the growth was 0,2% vs forecasted 0,3%.

    The price started the weak downward correction. After a short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1325 the pair tested the support level of 1.1260.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    The buyers need to break above 1.1325 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1410 will be opened after this breakthrough.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    There was the UK government bond yields increase in the debt market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will contribute to the British currency demand. The market attention will be focused on the UK inflation report which is expected to reach 0.0% after the previous 0.1%. the data came out at the forecasted median.

    The pound exchange rate cannot continue its upward movement. After the level of 1.5460 testing the pair pound/dollar sharply fell and broke through the support level of 1.5390.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5390, 1.5460.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event in the morning. We expect the moderate positive comments by Mr. Kuroda. The BoJ kept the monetary politic unchanged. Yesterday we saw the bearish sentiment prevalence in the world leading exchanges which also contributes to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

    The price continues its weak downward movement. The pair fell below the support level of 120.40 but by the end of the trades the pair returned at this level.

    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

    Trading recommendations

    We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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    ValdisFFS

    Posts : 551
    Join date : 2014-07-02

    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    Post  ValdisFFS on Wed Sep 16, 2015 9:04 pm

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    17.09.2015

    Fundamental analysis

    The US dollar rose against most currencies despite the US weak economic reports. Investors took a wait and see attitude ahead of the Federal Reserve System forthcoming meeting results.

    The EUR/USD pair decreased amid the August US retail sales positive data. In addition, the Zew report put pressure on the euro to which the German economic confidence index weakened sharply in September having reached the 10-month low. The business sector sentiment index fell to 12.1 points in September compared to 25.0 points in August. However the euro slightly increased by the end of the trades.

    The GBP/USD had decreased amid the US two year Treasury bond yields increase. In addition, the UK inflation report was in the center of attention having shown the August consumer price index growth by 0.2 %, still they were unchanged compared with the previous year. The last change coincided with the experts’ forecasts. Nevertheless, the pair pound/dollar sharply grew.

    By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY increased amid the bullish sentiment in the Japanese and the US stock markets.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General overview

    There was the US and Germany bond yields moderate growth which is a positive factor for the dollar as it increases investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Traders did not hurry to open new deals ahead of the US inflation release. The CPI release was expected with the positive data. The CPI came out at the level of forecasted median 0,1%.

    The price resumed the upward movement after the support level of 1.1260 testing.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1410, the next one is 1.1530.



    Pound (GBP)

    General overview

    The UK Core CPI indicator is showing the inflation growth by 0.42% compared with the previous month which indicates the UK labor market positive trend. The Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.5% since the beginning of the week which will provide support to the US currency as this factor is not obvious in the pair GBP/USD quotations.

    The pound exchange rate began its downward movement, but the support level of 1.5390 was short-term. The pair sharply increased and broke through the levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

    Trading recommendations

    We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5670.



    Yen (JPY)

    General overview

    Yesterday the US positive macroeconomic statistics was published. The statistics caused the two year Treasury bond securities growth which reflects the Fed rate expectations. The bond securities growth ahead of the monetary control meeting is a positive factor for the US currency. The profitability increased to the level of 0.8%, having set the fresh four-year high.

    The price is correcting against the weak downward movement. The pair grew and the resistance level of 120.40 was broken through.

    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

    Trading recommendations

    The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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    Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

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